Saturday, January 31, 2009

Photoshop Phake Trolls

There are the ones who insist that any astonishing, but real image is fake because... (insert bogus claim of technical expertise).  And then there are the real "Pros" who can prove that a picture of Sarah Palin shooting Bullwinkle and Rocky is fake.

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Two Ocean Creek, Wyoming

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This is a place I learned about many years ago, but will probably never have the opportunity to visit. The Google Map image above includes the approximate location where North Two Ocean Creek, splits into Pacific Creek, which flows to the Pacific Ocean via the Snake and Columbia rivers and Atlantic Creek, which flows to the Gulf of Mexico via the Yellowstone, Missouri, and Mississippi rivers. There are other continental divides throughout the world, but this is the only place that I am aware of where a significant drainage splits to different oceans.

According the the National Park Service, his is the point at which the Pacific Drainage cutthroat trout crossed the divide into the Mississippi Drainage.

This site includes maps and several photos of the point where North Two Ocean Creek splits.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Let's Not Do this Again...

In fact, I would prefer to take Bob the Angry Flower's approach and forget it ever happened.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Please Open Another Box!

Not all the 5th-Wheels at Walmart are in the parking lot.

Monday, January 12, 2009

Galactic Orientation - At the Mall

Did we park in the walrus zone, or the hippo?

Monday, January 5, 2009

Careers in 40% Forecasting

Recently our weather forecasters were predicting a "40% chance of snow" in our area later in the week.  Nobody was surprised when it snowed.  It got me to thinking about economic predictions that I was hearing from 2006 to mid 2008. Google "30% chance of recession", "40% chance of recession" or "50% chance of recession" and you'll see what I mean.

I'm thinking about a new career as prediction pundit. It does not require any real expertise on any subject, just follow one simple rule: Always stick with 40% (+ or - 10%).

The neat thing about making probability predictions is that if you keep it in the 30-50% range, a substantial number of people will think you were accurate no matter what happens.  A 40% probability is high enough to give you credit if the predicted event happens, but if it doesn't, you can still point out that you correctly predicted that the odds were greater that it would not happen.

One remarkable way that one can make forecasts that are close to 100% accurate is to assume the opposite of any prediction made by neocon analyst and commentator, Bill Kristol.